couple of good articles here

1

2

WAMU becoming Chase and Wachovia becoming Citi are going to be good things in the financial markets. They are both companies that have weathered the financial scare very well because of good managment. Citi not so much as Chase, but they are both global enough to where they don't need to hold as much of the bad paper that others have like Countrywide.

nother interesting day on the market

down 723 so far

anyone else think the market is in panic mode?

Looks like we are heading for 7 straight days of losses despite the bailout and coordinate rate cuts across the globe.

IBM profits beat expectations by nearly %20. In spite of that their stock has dropped from $109 to $90 in the last week. I think the main cause of this is panic

The stock market crash and the great depression in the 30's was caused by a large single day downturn in stock followed by investors panicking and selling their stock out of fear. If the investors had held onto their stock instead of selling in a panic allot of people think the depression might have never happened.

I wonder whats in store for us

Im gonna speculate because its fun. I think our slide is just beginning and we will bottom out someplace around 6-7k on the DOW

Heres my unscientific opinion why

The mortgage mess and lending practices started in the early 90's. During that time the DOW average was around 4k

Then came the dot com boom leading to 2000 followed by the housing bubble. During that time the DOW went from 4k all the way to 14k with almost 0 correction for the bubbles that the housing, banking and dot com's created.

I think the market is correcting itself and will stabilize shortly. However if the government keeps propping up our economy and not allowing it to adjust naturally things will get worse.

Looks like today is shaping up to be another bad day

Down 800+ so far



time to stock up on freeze dried food and ammo?

Another interesting note from the Campaign for Liberty



There has been so much attention on credit markets and stocks that the plunging price of oil has been under-reported. The fact that oil has gone from a high of $143 to a low of $78 as of this writing represents key shifts in the calculus and realities of OPN's (oil producing nations). Many OPN's have been drunk on oil revenues much the way the US has been drunk on credit.

This wouldn't be a problem as they could shift down on spending to reflect the new price, but they are not dependent on current revenues to pay for current expenditures. Instead, they are heavily leveraged borrowers who have collateralized future oil revenues in the form of high-interest loans. This is particularly acute in the "Bolivarian" republics: Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador. All have been borrowing heavily against future earnings to finance socialist domestic programs and nationalized industries. The sudden drop in price means that the chance that they will be unable to service the debt on that borrowing is only going to grow.

The potential outcome is a massive printing of money/issuing of government credit which will lead to inflation and political instability. Keep a very close eye on oil prices and how OPN’s respond. We all have a lot riding on it.

Another good article explaining the problem with the fiat money system and what the future holds

http://mises.org/story/3146

offroadaz wrote:Another good article explaining the problem with the fiat money system and what the future holds

http://mises.org/story/3146

Very good article... so many people think it is just a matter of the banks not trusting us (the customer) when in fact banks don't trust each other anymore. Is the government trying to put temporary "bandades" in place to postpone the inevitable? The trust is gone... speculation and investing has left the housing market and can now be seen (even more than before) in the stock market. Day traders are making a killing right now... buy low, sell quick and for as much as possible and then come back the next day and do it again. I think we are in for a long ride... buckle up!

Thought this was a good quote


“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.” — Alexis de Tocqueville

REALLY?

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105996/Ideas-for-2nd-Stimulus-Cover-Broad-Swath

Excellent video explaining the subprime mess and what caused it

very easy to understand

<object width="400" height="225"><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="movie" value="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=3261363&amp;server=vimeo.com&amp;show_title=1&amp;show_byline=1&amp;show_portrait=0&amp;color=&amp;fullscreen=1" /><embed src="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=3261363&amp;server=vimeo.com&amp;show_title=1&amp;show_byline=1&amp;show_portrait=0&amp;color=&amp;fullscreen=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" width="400" height="225"></embed></object><br /><a href="http://vimeo.com/3261363">The Crisis of Credit Visualized</a> from <a href="http://vimeo.com/jonathanjarvis">Jonathan Jarvis</a> on <a href="http://vimeo.com">Vimeo</a>.

offroadaz wrote:Im gonna speculate because its fun. I think our slide is just beginning and we will bottom out someplace around 6-7k on the DOW

Heres my unscientific opinion why

The mortgage mess and lending practices started in the early 90's. During that time the DOW average was around 4k

Then came the dot com boom leading to 2000 followed by the housing bubble. During that time the DOW went from 4k all the way to 14k with almost 0 correction for the bubbles that the housing, banking and dot com's created.

I think the market is correcting itself and will stabilize shortly. However if the government keeps propping up our economy and not allowing it to adjust naturally things will get worse.

Posted this back in October when we were around 9,000

wonder if we will see sub 6k ?

Good video, watch the first bit just to hear a guy with a british accent insulting the PM

<div><iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/29955003#29955003" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><p style="font-size:11px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #999; margin-top: 5px; background: transparent; text-align: center; width: 425px;">Visit msnbc.com for <a style="text-decoration:none !important; border-bottom: 1px dotted #999 !important; font-weight:normal !important; height: 13px; color:#5799DB !important;" href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com">Breaking News</a>, <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032507" style="text-decoration:none !important; border-bottom: 1px dotted #999 !important; font-weight:normal !important; height: 13px; color:#5799DB !important;">World News</a>, and <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032072" style="text-decoration:none !important; border-bottom: 1px dotted #999 !important; font-weight:normal !important; height: 13px; color:#5799DB !important;">News about the Economy</a></p></div>

<a title="View Sprott Comment July 2009 on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/17588181/Sprott-Comment-July-2009" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;">Sprott Comment July 2009</a> <object codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" id="doc_774406792675701" name="doc_774406792675701" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" align="middle" height="500" width="100%" > <param name="movie" value="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=17588181&access_key=key-1e45hssuu29urvtaydft&page=1&version=1&viewMode="> <param name="quality" value="high"> <param name="play" value="true"> <param name="loop" value="true"> <param name="scale" value="showall"> <param name="wmode" value="opaque"> <param name="devicefont" value="false"> <param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="menu" value="true"> <param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"> <param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"> <param name="salign" value=""> <embed src="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=17588181&access_key=key-1e45hssuu29urvtaydft&page=1&version=1&viewMode=" quality="high" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" play="true" loop="true" scale="showall" wmode="opaque" devicefont="false" bgcolor="#ffffff" name="doc_774406792675701_object" menu="true" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" salign="" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" align="middle" height="500" width="100%"></embed> </object>

Thanks, Chris. I look forward to your inspirational posts on a daily basis. I'm sorry I made fun of your cute animal posts. Please bring those back. ;)

alanzona wrote:Thanks, Chris. I look forward to your inspirational posts on a daily basis. I'm sorry I made fun of your cute animal posts. Please bring those back. ;)

lol

The only positive indicators I've seen lately are this. The dow back over 9k, GDP projections actually looking at a rise this month and for the forseeable future, and the lending industry willingness to put more money back in consumer pockets (eventhough it really isn't doing that, but hell who actually pays their mortgage to fruition these days?)

When they mention gov't tax revenue declines you also have to look at those states and see if they were fiscally responsible when the housing market was booming. I'm guessing no. Just like AZ over the past 6 years. Spending money that they didn't have based on projections for both future revenue and population growth. This is one of the reasons that I feel municipalities should not plan out more than 36 months for revenue growth at any one given time therefore holding them to spending levels that can't be out of reach thru current taxation and revenue sources.

I see where those guys are coming from, but at the same time I'm not seeing "depression" as the phrase word of the day.

Dozzer wrote:The only positive indicators I've seen lately are this. The dow back over 9k, GDP projections actually looking at a rise this month and for the forseeable future, and the lending industry willingness to put more money back in consumer pockets (eventhough it really isn't doing that, but hell who actually pays their mortgage to fruition these days?)

When they mention gov't tax revenue declines you also have to look at those states and see if they were fiscally responsible when the housing market was booming. I'm guessing no. Just like AZ over the past 6 years. Spending money that they didn't have based on projections for both future revenue and population growth. This is one of the reasons that I feel municipalities should not plan out more than 36 months for revenue growth at any one given time therefore holding them to spending levels that can't be out of reach thru current taxation and revenue sources.

I see where those guys are coming from, but at the same time I'm not seeing "depression" as the phrase word of the day.

besides printing tons of money what has changed to fix our problem? Seems to me we are seeing a short bounce due to the huge influx of cash. None of the underlying problems have been fixed