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Recession?
#41
offroadaz wrote:besides printing tons of money what has changed to fix our problem? Seems to me we are seeing a short bounce due to the huge influx of cash. None of the underlying problems have been fixed


From what I've seen in the market it's not really an influx of gov't cheese that is providing the serious majority of gains. Yes there are definitely companies that are showing improved results based on partially inflated numbers because of this outrageous govt spending programs. From what I've looked at though the "Dead Cat Bounce" theory is coming into play and that the "solid" companies in stablizing industries are seeing some of their value come back to the market due to discount buying from people that are still liquid and shopping in the market. Plus I think you are seeing a lot of very smart pension fund managers and the like that are bulking up their positions in a time when they are going to see huge gains from purchases.
#42
New CBO projection: 2.3 million more people unemployed next year than expected.... Real Unemployment Rate is 16%


There is no disagreement, however, about the net directional effect of the two. CBO and OMB project a weaker economy in the remainder of 2009 and in 2010 than they projected at the beginning of this year before enactment of the stimulus.

How much weaker?

Based on CBO’s forecast for the average unemployment rate in calendar year 2010, 2.3 million fewer people will be employed on average next year than they projected in January.

For comparison, in July there were about 140 million people employed in the U.S.

Next year’s reality will depend heavily on when the economy turns up and how quickly growth returns. A new projection of fewer people employed next year should not surprise anyone. But 2.3 million is a big bad number.
http://keithhennessey.com/2009/08/26/new-projection/
#43
Good news! FDIC funds plunged 20% in the 3rd quarter..

The FDIC also said the number of banks deemed to be in trouble jumped to 416 from 305 at the end of the first quarter.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32576575
#44
FYI my bank just became the proud owner of California. :lol:

Chase just gave Cali a 1.5 billion dollar loan so they can stop handing out IOU's. We are also part of a financing package of 20 billion that will help Cali thru the next year.
#45
Dozzer wrote:FYI my bank just became the proud owner of California. :lol:

Chase just gave Cali a 1.5 billion dollar loan so they can stop handing out IOU's. We are also part of a financing package of 20 billion that will help Cali thru the next year.


Cool! Can I come over and stay in your state sometime?
#46
alanzona wrote:Cool! Can I come over and stay in your state sometime?


No kiddin. The guy that is the head of government services is rollin in it right now. we just bought a bunch of options for the state of Illinois also.
#47
Over a year later, so what was the lowest the DOW closed? I know it was around 6k, but did it go lower? It's back over 10k now for the last couple weeks. Is that a sustainable level or is it being inflated by the TARP crap and the Fed printing unlimited supplies of money? Gold is $1100 an ounce now as the dollar weakens.

offroadaz wrote:Im gonna speculate because its fun. I think our slide is just beginning and we will bottom out someplace around 6-7k on the DOW

Heres my unscientific opinion why

The mortgage mess and lending practices started in the early 90's. During that time the DOW average was around 4k

Then came the dot com boom leading to 2000 followed by the housing bubble. During that time the DOW went from 4k all the way to 14k with almost 0 correction for the bubbles that the housing, banking and dot com's created.

I think the market is correcting itself and will stabilize shortly. However if the government keeps propping up our economy and not allowing it to adjust naturally things will get worse.
#48
march 9th, 2009
DJI 6547

im a genius


10k is a bubble
#49
offroadaz wrote:march 9th, 2009
DJI 6547

im a genius = not so agreed. :)=)


10k is a bubble = agreed.


...
#50
I think 10k is sustainable. 12k is a bubble and watch out if it ever happens.
#51
Dozzer wrote:I think 10k is sustainable. 12k is a bubble and watch out if it ever happens.


I agree 10k is sustainable, but I think we got back there so fast on a "bubble". Hopefully it doesn't, but I think it will drop again.
#52
Would all of you please hush your CNN, harpy, bad news, bad luck, bad spirited predictions?!?!?! }:)

sorry. It needs to stay above 10, please. :rockon:
#53
alanzona wrote:Would all of you please hush your CNN, harpy, bad news, bad luck, bad spirited predictions?!?!?! }:)

sorry. It needs to stay above 10, please. :rockon:


Thats like going to a Karaoke bar and thinking peopel will sing well... You like Karaoke dont you?
#54
Is it possible for you to be "double dead" to me? }:) There is no cross "little birdy talk" here, mister.
#55
Sorry Alan we have another surprise in store when a lot of the derivatives start playing out. Hell even Buffet is into about a billion or so on arbitrage bets.
#56
Dozzer wrote:Sorry Alan we have another surprise in store when a lot of the derivatives start playing out. Hell even Buffet is into about a billion or so on arbitrage bets.


Dude, what does Jimmy Buffet know about long term investing? (j/k/) :)=)
#57
Dozzer wrote:I think 10k is sustainable. 12k is a bubble and watch out if it ever happens.


Weve been in the 12k range for a few months now

gas prices are as high as ever

think it will pop?

down 132points so far this morning

attachment
#58
10 weeks is hardly a trend when it comes to stocks. Feb 1, 2011 was the first time it hit 12K since early June 2008. With the world market as it is right now, it's a bit scary. Still, I just put $5,000 into a Franklin Templeton Global Discovery Fund. If the US market takes a dump, maybe the rest of the world's big 5 economies will carry me through the bad bumps. Japan isn't a major contributor (yay!) but neither is China (boo). Note to self: Move some funds to a bond fund so I don't have all my eggs in one basket.

As for gas prices, don't expect to see prices under $3.00 any time soon (or ever). We (as a nation) have grown accustomed to paying $3.25/gal and have accepted this as a norm. Just like we accepted $2.39 back in 2008 when gas shot up to over $4.00/gal, then dipped to just under $2.00/gal. We welcomed $2.39/gal for fear that it would rise back up to $4.00/gal. Then in 2009, we again accepted $2.79/gal as the norm. In 2010, our pain threshold went up to $3.29/gal. Now, in 2011, I would give my left nut for prices to stagnate at $3.29/gal but it will balance out at $3.49/gal. Hell, by 2012 we've tolerated the weekly raping at the pumps, that we'll be tickled pink if gas prices are under $4.25!


Credit: seekingalpha.com/

Unless Obama allows for oil drilling in the Gulf again and the demand for gas stabilizes, the prices will continue to go up.

In a strange way, Economists think the increasing fuel prices is driving our economic growth! We can't get away from crude oil. We won't take mass transportation because we like our independence. We like alone in a 7-passenger Ford Excursion. We giggle at hybrids and electric vehicles because when you average out the inflated price of these cars and compared it to the cost of gas, it's a break even in 6 years, and the car goes to sh!t because the batteries now have to be replaced at a cost of $10,000. We don't have the cash to burn because we need gas money, but we all run out to get the new Iphone4, Ipad Gen2, or the HTC phone that's running Android 2.2 with Flash support. Truckers get screwed because they're paying more for diesel (which is a byproduct of gasoline, so it should be cheaper) so they in turn screw the manufacturers and distributors by passing the cost to them. We as consumers get screwed because we pay a fuel surcharge for just about everything, but we still buy stuff. We need stuff. We need food on the table, 54" LCD TVs in our living rooms, and 35's and 37's on the rims of our 13mpg gas guzzling 4X4s that weigh 900lbs more than when it left the showroom because of the new front/rear bumpers with tire carrier, armor protection, skid guards, reinforced roll cage, winch, and big-ass tires.

So, pat yourselves in the back, folks! You're saving our economy by bending over and taking it up the ass at the pumps! God bless America and those stupid mofo Economists.


Credit: runawayjuno.com
#59
I wonder how much the wars in in Iraq and Afghanistan impact our fuel costs. Analyst say demand is still high but most everyone I know drives less. Who can be using the oil? I wonder if the military is using more driving our costs up

speaking of using more fuel, we need to ditch the airlines for short distance flights. Bring in the airships, sure it might take 4 hours istead of 1 to get to california, but make it a cruise like experience, food, drink, lounges

I wish I had a billion dollars so I could start my own air ship enterprise
#60
Dow is down over 200 so far today. Another crash?

Standard & Poor's on Monday downgraded the outlook for the United States to negative.